Tsunami & the LTTE
B Raman,
Additional Secretary (retired), Cabinet Secretariat,
Government of India, New Delhi, and, presently,
Director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai, and
distinguished fellow and convener, Observer Research
Foundation, Chennai Chapter
South Asia Analysis Group, New Delhi, Paper No. 1217, January 10,
2005
" At this hour of national
and regional tragedy, one could detect among sections of the
Sinhalese signs of malign glee not only over the damage
suffered by the LTTE, but also over the fatalities suffered
by Tamil civilians. One only has to visit the Internet chat
rooms of many Sinhalese groups to have an idea of their
mindset. I am giving below random examples of the comments
of the Sinhalese: "If we let them alone, disease will wipe
them out. Sounds like the seven plagues in Egypt to me. Let
God do what man has been unwilling to do; " "Nothing like a
giant tsunami to ruin a good rebellion;" "Those kids
[children who were killed by the tsunami] would have ended
up as child soldiers of the LTTE anyway;" "Let them [the
Tamils] rot. Perfect opportunity to go in and wipe out
what's left of them;" "Have their leaders strap on mega-bomb
vests, then explode themselves. I'm sure they'll leave
behind a crater large enough to bury quite a few bodies."
One finds it difficult not to form an impression that many
Sinhalese feel that the tsunami has had a brighter side in
that it has taught a lesson to the Tamils and the LTTE. Even
Kumaratunge and her colleagues seem to feel that the tsunami
has brought the LTTE to its knees and this is the time to
teach it a lesson...I have been repeatedly writing that
the Sri Lankan Tamils need an LTTE minus Prabakaran and that
if the LTTE throws him out and gives up terrorism, India and
Sri Lanka should be prepared to do business with it."
Sri Lanka has suffered the most human fatalities
(30,000 plus) and infrastructure and other property damage after
Indonesia in the
catastrophic tsunami disaster of last month.
According to reliable reports from independent sources, the
Sri Lankan Tamil community in the Northern and Eastern provinces has
suffered the most in the tragedy, registering more than half of the
fatalities in the entire country.
Roads and other
infrastructure in the Tamil areas, which were already in an
unsatisfactory state due to nearly 20 years of the Tamil insurgency
for an independent Tamil state to be called Tamil Eelam, have
suffered further damage, thereby hampering relief and rehabilitation
efforts.
Since the tsunami has caused widespread damage or
destruction to fishing and other boats in the area, and since the
large number of mines planted by the security forces and the
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) during the conflict have
been loosened by the water surge, thereby causing serious danger to
anyone moving on foot or by vehicle across agricultural and other
fields, the only way of rushing humanitarian assistance to the
Tamils is by road.
Repair of the roads and damaged culverts
and bridges has, therefore, to be given priority. Unfortunately, the
efforts of the Sri Lankan government in this regard have been
sluggish so far. It is alleged by the Tamils that the government has
been paying more attention to the repair and restoration of damaged
road and rail communications in the Sinhalese-majority areas of the
south.
The LTTE was the first to be on its feet after the
disaster hit the area and lost no time in organizing relief, in
disposing of dead bodies and initiating measures for the restoration
of at least a semblance of normalcy in the areas under its control.
Governmental agencies and the army were much slower to react in the
Tamil areas, preoccupied as they were in the Sinhalese-majority
areas. Pro-LTTE sources have alleged that President Chandrika
Kumaratunge's government, including the army, turned a deaf ear to
the LTTE's request for urgently placing heavy earth-moving and other
equipment at its disposal so that it could repair and restore the
damaged road communications.
The seeming insensitivity of
the government to the tragedy suffered by the Tamils and its
apparent attempts to draw political mileage out of it are also
evident from the reported orders of Kumaratunge to the army to take
over the responsibility for running the relief and rehabilitation
camps set up by pro-LTTE non-governmental organizations in the Tamil
areas controlled by the government.
When they found the governmental agencies slow to move into the
affected Tamil areas under government control, these
non-governmental organizations took the initiative in setting up
these camps. Instead of appreciating their efforts and encouraging
and helping them to continue to do so, the government has ordered
them to hand them over to the army. This has been strongly resisted
by the LTTE, which has threatened to continue to resist it at any
price.
The government has reportedly rebuked the Italian
Embassy in Colombo for sending humanitarian relief directly to the
affected Tamils and has made it clear that all governmental
assistance from other countries should be routed to the Tamils
through it. It strongly opposed the wish of Kofi Annan, the United
Nations secretary general, who was in Sri Lanka on Saturday, to
visit the affected Tamil areas in the northern province, too, and
meet the Tamil leaders ( meaning apparently the LTTE leaders) in
order to express the solidarity of the international community with
them, thereby forcing him to cancel his plans to go there. The
government reportedly took him only to the Tamil areas in the
eastern province still under its control.
While repeatedly
denying the LTTE's allegations of discrimination against the Tamils,
Kumaratunge has claimed that 80% of all foreign medical assistance
and other humanitarian relief groups have been sent by the
government to the Tamil areas, but this is questioned by the Tamils.
On the ground, the way the government has been acting gives the
impression that it is giving first priority to the Sinhalese
majority areas, the second to the Tamil areas under its control and
only the last to the areas under the control of the LTTE.
Independent reports from the Northern and Eastern provinces indicate
that the military infrastructure of the government as well as the
LTTE has also been seriously damaged by the tsunami, with the LTTE,
which had a stronger and a wider presence than the government,
suffering much greater damage.
Kumaratunge has been quoted
in the media as saying that the possibility of the LTTE returning to
insurgency due to its continuing differences with the government was
far more remote than it was before December 26, since, according to
her, the LTTE had suffered heavy losses to its cadres and equipment.
"Our camps have also lost a lot of equipment but physical damage to
camp structures are less," she said.
It stands to reason
that the LTTE's military infrastructure in the north as well as the
east must have suffered considerably since the most devastating
impact of the tsunami in Sri Lanka was reportedly in the Tamil
areas. However, it has been difficult to quantify the losses
suffered by the LTTE and to assess its impact on the LTTE's
capability for resuming the insurgency and keeping it sustained. In
the absence of reliable information, it is also difficult to
estimate what effect the devastation has had on the LTTE's following
among the people, particularly in the Eastern province, where its
hold had been showing signs of weakening since last March.
While the LTTE has been more efficient than the government in
documenting the losses suffered by the Tamil civilians and in
sharing the information with the international community, it has
been playing down the losses suffered by its military infrastructure
and giving figures which do not seem to be correct. On the other
hand, the Sinhalese media, suspected to have been fed disinformation
by the military intelligence, has been reporting what appears to be
highly exaggerated figures of the losses allegedly suffered by the
LTTE.
Reuters news agency, which one would presume to be
independent, reported as follows in a dispatch from Mullaitivu on
December 29:
"The Tigers' main naval base at Mullaitivu was
devastated, as was part of its fleet. Bodies littered the ground
like an upturned graveyard and the overpowering stench of death
wafted over the area. Children accounted for the bulk of the victims
in nearby fishing villages. All 135 children at an orphanage run by
female Tigers were swept away to their deaths. 'We have only found
bodies so far,' said Colonel Soosai, head of the Tigers' naval arm,
the Sea Tigers. 'We have not received any aid from the government
yet. If the government warned us early when the quake struck, the
devastation could have been partially avoided,' he said angrily.
The rebels, whom the United States have placed on a list of banned
terror groups alongside the likes of al-Qaeda, said just 15 of their
cadres were among the dead. A whole battalion of Sea Tiger cadres in
fatigues collected bloated bodies and lined them at the roadside
ready for mass burial. Some wearing white medical masks and gloves
used leafy branches to swish away thousands of flies swarming over
the dead. Few buildings on the coast were left standing. Mangled
wreckage of trucks, mopeds and fishing boats lay twisted along the
shore, and crumpled bodies were tangled in fishing nets.
Telephone lines to the south were disrupted. Aid
workers said that residents in the northeast now faced a new threat,
from thousands of an estimated one million mostly plastic landmines
sown across the region and now uprooted by floodwaters. Officials
said just 12 of 1,500 local fishing boats were still seaworthy. More
than 120,000 people in Tiger-held areas had been displaced from
their homes, many now housed in makeshift refugee camps. Roofs
sagged, walls crumbled and bricks littered the town. Many distraught
survivors could only look on in desperation."
A website of the LTTE has quoted Soosai as stating as follows on the
losses suffered by the LTTE:
"In Mullaitivu three of our fighters perished. Major
Dharmendra, a fighter who was assigned to provide support to him
[Soosai] and a civilian fighter we call 'Petrol Iyah', died in the
calamity. In Vattuvagal and Chaalai we didn't suffer any losses to
personnel. In Vadamaradchy east we lost three fighters manning the
forward defense lines. An LTTE woman cadre who had come to
Vadamaradchy East on leave died in the flooding. Loss of lives of
our cadres was limited to those I have mentioned. We suffered some
additional property damage. In Trincomalee and in Batticaloa two
observation posts were washed away. The losses are not that
significant."
However, non-Tamil and non-LTTE sources have been giving differing
estimates of the LTTE cadres killed, varying between 1,200 and
5,000. According to them, large quantities of arms, ammunition and
explosives stockpiled by the Tigers have been destroyed. Tiger camps
at Nagar Kovil in Jaffna, Mahalnadu, Welvetithurai, Thandamanarau,
Malati, Mathagal, Mankarni and Sea Tiger camps at Mullaitivu,
Nayaru, Chmmaale, Championpaththu and Chalai have been completely
destroyed. Four Tiger radar centers positioned along the Mullaitivu
coastal belt have been damaged beyond repair. About 200 boats
belonging to the Sea Tigers as well as 1,500 boats belonging to
fishermen, who are sympathetic to the LTTE, have also been badly
damaged.
Mystery surrounds the fate of Prabakaran, the leader of the LTTE.
While a statement on the disaster attributed to him was disseminated
by the LTTE on December 29, he has neither been seen nor heard since
December 26. The only senior LTTE leaders, who have been active
visiting the devastated areas, are Tamilselvan, the head of the
political department of the LTTE, who has been liaising with the
representatives of non-governmental organizations engaged in relief
work, Soosai, the head of the Sea Tigers, Colonel Bhanu, who is the
overall LTTE commander for Batticaloa-Amparai district in the
eastern province, and some of their juniors.
All statements critical of the government and
appealing to the international community have been mainly coming
from these three leaders. According to one report, Prabakaran, Pottu
Amman, his intelligence chief, and some other senior leaders of the
LTTE were attending a special Christmas service in a Mullaitivu
church on the morning of December 26 when the tsunami struck the
church and they have not been seen again. Nor have their bodies been
found.
The government-owned Sri Lankan Broadcasting Corporation (SLBC)
stated on January 8, quoting a vice-admiral of the Sri Lankan navy,
that Prabakaran and Pottu Amman were among the dead or reported
missing, but the LTTE immediately denied this as a mischievous
fabrication. Even Soosai has been quoted in some reports as saying
that there were at least 1,600 fatalities in Mullaitivu. If
Prabakaran was located there at the time of the disaster as claimed
by non-LTTE sources, it should not be a surprise if he was among the
victims. However, the SLBC is since reported to have retracted its
statement without giving any reason.
One has to treat these reports with considerable
skepticism for the present due to the following reasons:
The same sources had earlier claimed that Tamilselvan was also among
the dead or missing. He has since appeared in public and has been
moving around. If the entire congregation in a church had been
killed, the church leaders would have made a reference to it. They
have not. The day before the arrival of Annan in Colombo, some
senior church leaders of the northern province had written to him
appealing to him to visit Mullaitivu and see the devastation for
himself and meet the LTTE leaders. The LTTE itself and many pro-LTTE
organizations had addressed similar appeals to him. It is doubtful
whether they would have done so if Prabakaran was dead or missing.
If Annan had visited Mullaitivu and if Prabakaran was not there to
receive him, it would have been taken by the public as confirmation
of his death.
Whatever be the truth, one thing appears very likely, if not
certain. The LTTE's military-cum-terrorist machine has been badly
damaged by the tsunami. Similarly, its tax-collection machinery and
its usual sources of funds have been damaged. Some of the statements
of the LTTE leaders show that they are on the defensive. Even while
criticizing the government, they are avoiding unnecessary rhetoric.
The tsunami has been a traumatic shock for the LTTE and its
surviving leadership, but there is no evidence so far to indicate
demoralization in the ranks of its survivors or a weakening of their
motivation. Unfortunately, only Ranil Wickremasinghe, the former
prime minister, who initiated the peace process with the LTTE, has
been conducting himself in a statesmanlike manner in this hour of
tragedy. He has been pointing out that despite the setback suffered
by it, it was the LTTE which was the first to recover from the shock
and rush to the relief of the people. He has, therefore, been
arguing in favor of routing all relief and rehabilitation through it
and through organizations allied to it.
At this hour of national and regional tragedy, one
could detect among sections of the Sinhalese signs of malign glee
not only over the damage suffered by the LTTE, but also over the
fatalities suffered by Tamil civilians. One only has to visit the
Internet chat rooms of many Sinhalese groups to have an idea of
their mindset. I am giving below random examples of the comments of
the Sinhalese: "If we let them alone, disease will wipe them out.
Sounds like the seven plagues in Egypt to me. Let God do what man
has been unwilling to do; " "Nothing like a giant tsunami to ruin a
good rebellion;" "Those kids [children who were killed by the
tsunami] would have ended up as child soldiers of the LTTE anyway;"
"Let them [the Tamils] rot. Perfect opportunity to go in and wipe
out what's left of them;" "Have their leaders strap on mega-bomb
vests, then explode themselves. I'm sure they'll leave behind a
crater large enough to bury quite a few bodies."
One finds it difficult not to form an impression that many Sinhalese
feel that the tsunami has had a brighter side in that it has taught
a lesson to the Tamils and the LTTE. Even Kumaratunge and her
colleagues seem to feel that the tsunami has brought the LTTE to its
knees and this is the time to teach it a lesson.
The LTTE is a
ruthless organization and
Prabakaran was
the most ruthless terrorist leader in the world.One need not
shed any tears over his death, if he is really dead.
Note
by tamilnation.org:
see also...
1.
Anita Pratap,
reporting in Outlook on The
Best Guerrilla of All, June 2000 -
"...The myth was bigger than the man. That was in the
early '80s, when I met LTTE leader Velupillai
Pirabaharan for the very first time... Today, the man is
bigger than the myth... In one of her interviews to me,
(Sri Lanka) President Chandrika Kumaratunga had said
"even the best guerrillas must tire of fighting and
war". That was five years ago. Pirabaharan is better
than the best. His energy and commitment to his cause
show no signs of flagging. From a hit-and-run guerrilla
fighter, he has evolved into a mastermind of
conventional battles, the commander of a national army
that forced the world's fourth largest army to retreat
and is
now giving the Sri Lankan army a run for its money.
The more wounded Pirabaharan is,
the more ferocious he becomes - it's not for nothing
he chose the tiger as his emblem. His stealth, timing,
cunning, ambushes - all are inspired by the tiger. And
like the tiger, his courage is raw and proud. Some time
back, I had asked him what he had learned over two
decades as a guerrilla fighter. He answered, "He who
dares, wins." That was the headline given to the
interview when it was published in Time. Five months
later, I happened to travel in Europe and the US and was
amazed to see the number of Sri Lankan Tamils wearing
T-shirts with that legend. Pirabaharan has spawned a
worldwide legion."
2.
Lieutenant General S.C.
Sardesh Pande, IPKF Divisional Commander, Jaffna
in "Assignment
Jaffna",
published in 1992)
"I
have a high regard for the LTTE for its discipline,
dedication, determination, motivation and technical
expertise...
I was left with the impression that the LTTE was
the expression of popular Tamil sentiment
and could not be destroyed, so long as that sentiment
remained... Our unit and formation commanders
too came under the mental hypnosis of the LTTE. They
would graphically explain how well entrenched the LTTE
was in the minds of the people, how ungrateful people
were to us, how elusive the LTTE was, how perfect it was
in the midst of the people and in its actions, how
effective was its grip over the public and so on -
virtually admitting that it was an impossible task and
all our endeavours were pointless... "
|
I have been repeatedly writing that the Sri Lankan
Tamils need an LTTE minus Prabakaran and that if the LTTE throws him
out and gives up terrorism, India and Sri Lanka should be prepared
to do business with it. Without the protective role of the LTTE, the
Tamils would be at the mercy of the Sinhalese chauvinists.
Statesmanship demands that the Sri Lankan leaders should work for
such a denouement through special gestures to the Tamils and the
other leaders of the LTTE. The signs of insensitivity in the
attitude of Kumaratunge are unwise and dangerous and could further
aggravate the feelings of alienation of the Tamils. |